Industrial, Office And Apartment Markets
Recent reports paint a bleak
picture for industrial, office and apartment construction, as rents fell and
vacancies rose in 2009.
“We saw a
dramatic fall in [industrial] construction starting in 2009, as completed
projects were not replaced by new ones,” Jared Sullivan, economist for CBRE
Econometric Advisors (
www.cbre-ea.com) wrote on
Jan. 11. “With the situation in the capital markets still tenuous, it is
unlikely that this trend will reverse itself in the near future…but there are
still markets with the right industrial composition or logistical connections,
where it may make sense to build if capital is available…this year will see the
lowest levels of construction on record, dating back to 1980. With vacancy
rates nationwide remaining elevated and rental rates falling, it will be some
time before industrial construction rebounds in all but the healthiest
markets.”
One healthy
market is Boston, which “has held up relatively well compared to its five-year
historical average, thanks to the market’s strong concentration of biotech
firms. A diverse market, Boston’s construction pipeline has been and continues
to be a mixture of R&D facilities, warehouses and manufacturing facilities.”
Office rents
“declined in almost all of the 79 American cities tracked by Reis Inc., a New
York-based research firm, in the fourth quarter of 2009,” the
Wall
Street Journal reported on Jan. 8. Nationwide, effective rents — the
net amount tenants pay after landlord concessions — fell close to 9 percent,
the largest decline since Reis began compiling data in 1981. The “vacancy rate
rose to 17 percent, the highest since 1994.” Washington and New York had the
lowest rates, 10.7 percent and 11.5 percent respectively.
“Apartment
vacancies hit a 30-year high in the fourth quarter, and rents fell as landlords
scrambled to retain existing tenants
and attract new ones,” the
Journal reported on Jan. 7.
“The vacancy rate ended the year at 8 percent, the highest
level since Reis…began its tally in 1980. Rents fell 3 percent last year,
according to Reis, led by declines in San Jose, Seattle, San Francisco and
other cities that had brisk growth until the recession…During the fourth
quarter, vacancies increased in 52 markets, while they improved in 17 and
stayed flat in 10. Vacancies increased most sharply for the year in Tucson,
Charlotte and Lexington, Kentucky.
“Landlords
were also hit last year by competition from a wave of new supply that hit the
market. The 120,000 units that came onto the market last year, including some
busted condo projects that had to be converted to rentals, represented the most
new construction since 2003, according to Reis…The credit crunch has frozen
most new development, which means that new apartment completions should fall by
half in 2011.”
The Institute for Supply
Management reported on Jan. 6. that purchasing executives in nonmanufacturing
sectors were split on whether business activity improved from November to
December. Executives in seven sectors (out of 18 total) reported growth but
nine sectors, including construction, reported contraction. Construction was
one of three sectors reporting an increase in order backlogs.
Four sectors, including
construction, reported an increase in prices paid in December. Of items used in
construction, copper, copper fittings, copper pipe and diesel fuel were
reported up in price; no price declines were reported by respondents in any sector.
Manufacturing purchasing executives reported price increases for aluminum,
aluminum products and steel as well as copper in a survey released on January
4.